The past few years have been very good for fans of fantasy. We can find more books, movies, and TV shows catering to our interests than possibly ever before. It’s wonderful, but I often find myself asking why? Thinking short-term, I believe the surge in fantasy might be just another modern-day commodity bubble, always on the verge of popping. But thinking more long-term, even if the fantasy bubble should pop, I believe something has changed on a more fundamental level such that fantasy will remain more popular than it has in the past.
It is no secret that bestselling books tend to become popular movies and TV shows. If you look back at the top grossing movies and bestselling books of 2010 through 2012, you will see the overlap: namely, Harry Potter, Twilight, and the Hunger Games. HBO is currently airing the second season of Game of Thrones, based on George R. R. Martin’s A Song of Ice and Fire series; it is about to start the fifth season of True Blood, based on Charlaine Harris’s The Southern Vampire Mysteries series; and it is developing a six-season adaptation of Neil Gaiman’s novel American Gods.
The relationship between print and film is often a cyclical one. A book becomes a bestseller, then the film rights are purchased, then a TV show or film is produced, and then the books (or boxed set by this time) get more time on the bestseller lists as fans of the filmed version decide to read the book(s) for the first time. Publishers then look for the next bestseller to begin the cycle anew. Theoretically, this cycle can continue almost indefinitely, regardless of a book’s target audience. Movies will continue to cater to young and teen audiences, while cable television can target a more adult audience.
But this relationship is fragile. It only works if people keep buying books, watching movies, and subscribing to premium channels. When it comes to fantasy, people are currently doing all three, and publishers and producers are rushing to give us more. But that eagerness creates an increased risk that “the next big thing” could turn into the “next big flop.” All it takes is a couple of stumbles, and the fantasy bubble will pop. Money will dry up, and fantasy fans will have fewer options.
But even should the bubble burst, I think we are undergoing more fundamental, societal changes that will push people towards fantasy fandom in the long-term. I believe we live in a science fiction world. But it is not the chrome-plated, rocket-powered, optimistic world of tomorrow described in so many classic sci-fi stories. I think people are growing increasingly confused and uneasy in this world of rapidly evolving technology, so people are rejecting the modern world in a variety of ways (for example, it should not be a surprise that fewer and fewer people are interested in traveling beyond low-Earth orbit).
The fact that people use modern technology to distract themselves from the modern world only adds to the dissonance they feel. For example, look around at how many people avoid others by listening to music or podcasts, tweet to strangers online instead of interacting with the people around them, or research crafting projects that have not been popular for generations. You may even be reading this on your phone right now, ignoring what is going on around you. Yes, I realize I am bordering on curmudgeonly old man territory here, but bear with me for a moment.
My argument is that people are looking for escapism, but they do not want to turn to science fiction. People get enough science fiction in their daily lives, and many are uncomfortable with that fact. Instead, they will turn to fantasy: primal stories of monsters and magic as a rejection of the modern world in front of us. And they will continue to do so as this problem continues and expands. Therefore, I believe that even if the fantasy entertainment bubble should burst, I think a demand for fantasy will remain. The best case? Fantasy will enjoy elevated popularity for the long term. The worst case? It is a short-term boom. Either way, enjoy the ride, fans of fantasy.
