May 24, 2017, 04:40:08 PM

Author Topic: Employment in a futuristic world  (Read 910 times)

Offline The Gem Cutter

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Re: Employment in a futuristic world
« Reply #15 on: September 26, 2016, 08:39:10 PM »
I just thought that pubs closing was sad.  I just like to sing and we don't do that in American bars, only in pubs that harken back to Ireland and Great Britain.

My apologies for my exploitation of young people. I celebrate their freedom to be unemployed, free of my tyranny, or to work at other unskilled labor positions, where there are no tips at all and their earnings are absolutely fixed.
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Offline Rostum

Re: Employment in a futuristic world
« Reply #16 on: September 26, 2016, 10:05:52 PM »
Quote
I just thought that pubs closing was sad.  I just like to sing and we don't do that in American bars, only in pubs that harken back to Ireland and Great Britain.

A moment of silence... It is a cyclical thing from the 1840's the great British boozer nearly dies out every 30 years or so as a result of bad legislation, bad regulation, Licensing law changes, taxation on alcohol and the smoking ban. It is acceptable to sing in the pub after a football match or if there is a folk club other than that no.

Quote
My apologies for my exploitation of young people. I celebrate their freedom to be unemployed, free of my tyranny, or to work at other unskilled labor positions, where there are no tips at all and their earnings are absolutely fixed.

Bar staff here tend to be on minimum wage or just above work part time and don't get tips. That's £7.20/$9.35 p/h we just have waiters and waitresses in restaurants. In pubs and bars you are served at the bar. They opened Starbucks to exploit the Kids (and those who don't understand what coffee should actually taste like)
Fixed pay is not the end of the world so long it actually pays for an existence.

Offline m3mnoch

Re: Employment in a futuristic world
« Reply #17 on: September 27, 2016, 12:09:07 AM »
Wrong Culture and Geography. If you can find a cocktail bar here you wont find waitresses.
Pubs and bars are closing at a rate of 25-30 a week here.

'MURICA!!

Offline K.B. Adams

Re: Employment in a futuristic world
« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2017, 10:07:44 PM »
The Trends Institute says that because of innate human wiring, the more high tech a society gets, the more they crave "high touch" and hands-on to balance it.

Handcrafting and handmade are no longer a necessity in the future world, but they become a novelty experience others crave and now must pay for in order to experience. Teaching or allowing tours to handcrafting and experiences revolving around high touch now become new paid occupations.

Also, someone has to continue to build, repair, upgrade, and eliminate outdated drones, computers, etc.

Offline m3mnoch

Re: Employment in a futuristic world
« Reply #19 on: May 05, 2017, 10:22:13 PM »
The Trends Institute says that because of innate human wiring, the more high tech a society gets, the more they crave "high touch" and hands-on to balance it.

Handcrafting and handmade are no longer a necessity in the future world, but they become a novelty experience others crave and now must pay for in order to experience. Teaching or allowing tours to handcrafting and experiences revolving around high touch now become new paid occupations.

Also, someone has to continue to build, repair, upgrade, and eliminate outdated drones, computers, etc.


"high touch" is why i think we're approaching a new artistic renaissance.  i'm actually pretty excited about it.

that being said, it's gonna be rough getting there:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/05/03/what-are-humans-good-for-bosses-worry-about-the-workforce-of-tomorrow
Quote
“Seriously? You’re asking about the workforce of the future?” added another respondent, a science editor who asked to stay anonymous. “As if there’s going to be one?”

Offline Lanko

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Re: Employment in a futuristic world
« Reply #20 on: May 06, 2017, 01:51:28 AM »
I don't know what kind of work we'll have, but they'll exist.

I mean, computers, the Internet, cars and etc probably back in the day erased some jobs (and probably still erase?) but at the same time how many others were created thanks to computers, the Internet, cars?

The same thing for electricity or electronics.

Could anyone back then predict the new jobs and new professions all those inventions would create? So I think any kind of panic today goes the same way. There'll be new jobs and professions in the future, we just don't know (and probably can't) know what.
"It is an old maxim of mine that when you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."

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Offline cupiscent

Re: Employment in a futuristic world
« Reply #21 on: May 06, 2017, 05:52:58 AM »
I was discussing with my (lawyer) husband last night how Watson is making the legal profession obsolete, because you can get better legal advice off the internet for free now. But, I noted, Watson and the internet can't change law, can't interpret new law, can't advise about new interpretations of existing law due to other changes in circumstances. (Unless a human feeds that information into the matrix. The machine is only as good as the coding and materials that humans feed into it.)

As with factory machinery, what computers really take over is the boring, repetitive stuff. I think m3m's right about creative renaissance.

I mean... do I love being able to order a pizza online and have it delivered without having to interact with a human until I open my door? Yes. But do I want to speak to an experienced and intelligent waitperson when matching a beverage to my meal? Also yes.

Offline xiagan

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Re: Employment in a futuristic world
« Reply #22 on: May 06, 2017, 06:28:07 AM »
The Trends Institute says that because of innate human wiring, the more high tech a society gets, the more they crave "high touch" and hands-on to balance it.

Handcrafting and handmade are no longer a necessity in the future world, but they become a novelty experience others crave and now must pay for in order to experience. Teaching or allowing tours to handcrafting and experiences revolving around high touch now become new paid occupations.

Also, someone has to continue to build, repair, upgrade, and eliminate outdated drones, computers, etc.


"high touch" is why i think we're approaching a new artistic renaissance.  i'm actually pretty excited about it.

that being said, it's gonna be rough getting there:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/05/03/what-are-humans-good-for-bosses-worry-about-the-workforce-of-tomorrow
Quote
“Seriously? You’re asking about the workforce of the future?” added another respondent, a science editor who asked to stay anonymous. “As if there’s going to be one?”
And that's why we need an unconditional basic income.
It is doable and I believe society would profit from it, if more people would have the time to do what they want and not what they have to in order to pay the bills.
"Sire, I had no need of that hypothesis." (Laplace)

Offline K.B. Adams

Re: Employment in a futuristic world
« Reply #23 on: May 09, 2017, 08:46:56 PM »
The Trends Institute says that because of innate human wiring, the more high tech a society gets, the more they crave "high touch" and hands-on to balance it.

Handcrafting and handmade are no longer a necessity in the future world, but they become a novelty experience others crave and now must pay for in order to experience. Teaching or allowing tours to handcrafting and experiences revolving around high touch now become new paid occupations.

Also, someone has to continue to build, repair, upgrade, and eliminate outdated drones, computers, etc.


"high touch" is why i think we're approaching a new artistic renaissance.  i'm actually pretty excited about it.

that being said, it's gonna be rough getting there:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/05/03/what-are-humans-good-for-bosses-worry-about-the-workforce-of-tomorrow
Quote
“Seriously? You’re asking about the workforce of the future?” added another respondent, a science editor who asked to stay anonymous. “As if there’s going to be one?”

m3mnoch -- I agree, getting from here to there could be very rough. I do see it sneaking in here and there, though. Several people in my group have worked with the agricultural industry since the 1980s. Used to be, farmers did their work, produced the crops, then got paid. Non-farmers couldn't have cared less about the farmers' farming business. Then industrialization made many of the smaller farms obsolete because huge machinery and more distant larger and larger plots of land now did the work that the smaller neighboring local farms once did by human labor.
Today, smaller farms are returning again, some even reverting back to horse power, most returning to gentler hands-on local production. And part of their income comes from agritourism, meaning they offer tours and hands-on workshops for people to come right onto their farm to see hands-on agriculture. (How to milk cows, how to make cheese at home, pick your own pumpkin, etc.) Pumpkin farms are making six-digit incomes by inviting people onto the farm -- which those people now crave because we no longer have the 40% agriculture society we used to have at the turn of the century (1800s/1900s) where farms were around every corner and taken for granted. Mainstream society now sees hands-on farming as a precious novelty they crave to experience. Higher tech continues to enter agriculture with computerized indoor growing operations -- yet the human soul still yearns to touch real soil.

Offline Ray McCarthy

Re: Employment in a futuristic world
« Reply #24 on: May 16, 2017, 08:07:07 PM »
With the rise of online shopping [1], drones[2], automated factories[3], supercomputers[4], 3D printers[4], self-driving vehicles[5] and whatnot... what will there be left for 99,9% of ordinary people to do in the future? I'm not a very tech-minded person, but it seems to me that eventually one will be able to get just about any service or material good without input from another human being.

We were promised the "paperless" office within a year or so in the early 1980s. The technology existed to do it even before the IBM PC.
[1] Mail order really, just faster ordering. In UK the actual delivery can be slower than Victorian era. It started in 18th C. Rail and steam ferries made delivery faster in 19th C.
[2] Drones have some serious survey and military application. Doesn't affect employment.
[3] Factory automation is ongoing and started in 18th C. (See Jacquard programming, power loom). By 1930s it was extensive. See videos on YouTube pre 1939 valve/tube production.  Automated PCB insertion of parts started in mid 1950s. SMT technology and automated production of a VCR in 1980s. Cheap automated production has just about wiped out the traditional electrical/electronic repair industry. Cheaper even at retail to replace rather than repair.
[4] 3D printing is for prototyping and niche or one off products. It's not going to make much difference to employment.
[5] Self driving cars are mostly hype. How come Trains, ships and planes are not? Much easier. The first 100% automated flight (including takeoff and landing) was demonstrated in 1970s.

Employment changes. Futurologists and Trend institutes have a low success rate. No better than fiction.
Agricultural employment is staggeringly lower per production now compared to 1930s and will get lower. Partially because people don't want to pick fruit, peas, nuts etc. So initially more expensive automation will be developed.

There will be jobs we have not thought of.

A higher proportion of people are working in offices now than 1950s and in some Western countries are working 45 hours. Job sharing is slow to take off.

Eventually we will have to stop insisting "unemployed" are spongers or wastrels or stupid. Some kinds of activities that are not economic could be subsidised (like repairing stuff instead of scrappage). In reality the amount of benefit fraud is very low. Most people that are unemployed would prefer to work. In UK 60% of disabled welfare payments stopped are overturned on appeal. What about all the people too vulnerable to appeal? Even the appeal system is harsh.

There is increasing demand for "real" paintings rather than prints.

Really for fiction it only needs to seem believable and not boring. In many stories the subject can be ignored. The UK Tory & US Republican "trickle down" idea isn't going to work, nor does ardent "socialism". Some countries have a good balance. No homelessness in Finland. Sweden mixes Social & Capitalist ideas (I wish they were not a major arms exporter).
Quote
Watson is making the legal profession obsolete
No, it's not!
IBM propaganda and hype, Watson has no general AI. It's just an updated 1980s "Expert System" with added IBM marketing. Look at IBM sale of Watson to a USA hospital, nothing delivered.
One sale of an Expert System to one Law firm (Japan?) is getting hyped. Legal stuff you can look up on the Internet, like Medical, is no substitute for a lawyer / Solicitor and isn't from IBM. They don't do free.
 
« Last Edit: May 16, 2017, 08:12:30 PM by Ray McCarthy »

Offline Ray McCarthy

Re: Employment in a futuristic world
« Reply #25 on: May 18, 2017, 10:23:11 AM »
Also don't listen to Transhumanists, Silicon valley leaders, or big Tech company sociopathic bosses:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/18/tesla-workers-factory-conditions-elon-musk

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